What types of uncertainties are involved in climate change?

Climatic changes are projected to cause an escalation in climatic variation coupled with increasing uncertainty as one moves from global to local scales (IPCC 2014). Examples include growing uncertainties around spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall, extreme temperatures as well as droughts, cyclones and floods.

What are two of the main uncertainties in projections of climate change?

There are three main sources of uncertainty in projections of climate: that due to future emissions (scenario uncertainty, green), due to internal climate variability (orange), and due to inter-model differences (blue).

What is the main source of uncertainty in climate projections?

Three major sources of uncertainty are considered: the choice of climate model, the choice of emissions scenario, and the internal variability of the modeled climate system.

What are 3 things that affect climate change?

Human Versus Natural Causes

  • Greenhouse Gases. …
  • Reflectivity or Absorption of the Sun’s Energy. …
  • Changes in the Earth’s Orbit and Rotation. …
  • Variations in Solar Activity. …
  • Changes in the Earth’s Reflectivity. …
  • Volcanic Activity. …
  • Changes in Naturally Occurring Carbon Dioxide Concentrations.
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What are key uncertainties?

Critical uncertainties are unstable or unpredictable, such as consumer tastes, government regulations, natural disasters, or new technologies or products. A critical uncertainty is an uncertainty that’s key to the decision you focused on from Step 1.

What is uncertainty in climate?

Uncertainty is not exclusive to climate change and adaptation. … Some relevant descriptions of uncertainty include: A state of incomplete knowledge that can result from a lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable.

What is the primary source of uncertainty for how much Earth’s climate will warm by the end of the century?

Such direct observational evidence is limited, however, and clouds remain the biggest source of uncertainty–apart from human choices to control greenhouse gases—in predicting how much the climate will change.

What is the largest source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity?

The representation of clouds is widely regarded as the largest source of uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity obtained by global climate models (GCMs) (Boucher et al.

What are the 5 major factors that affect climate change?

LOWERN

  • Latitude. It depends on how close or how far it is to the equator. …
  • Ocean currents. Certain ocean currents have different temperatures. …
  • Wind and air masses. Heated ground causes air to rise which results in lower air pressure. …
  • Elevation. The higher up you are, the colder and drier it will be. …
  • Relief.

What are the 5 causes of climate change?

The National found out the five main culprits for this increase in greenhouse gases.

  • Fossil fuels. Expand Autoplay. …
  • Deforestation. …
  • Increasing livestock farming. …
  • Fertilisers containing nitrogen. …
  • Fluorinated gases.
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What are the 5 effects of climate change?

What are the effects of climate change and global warming?

  • rising maximum temperatures.
  • rising minimum temperatures.
  • rising sea levels.
  • higher ocean temperatures.
  • an increase in heavy precipitation (heavy rain and hail)
  • shrinking glaciers.
  • thawing permafrost.

Which type of planning is based on uncertainties?

Scenario planning is making assumptions on what the future is going to be and how your business environment will change overtime in light of that future. More precisely, Scenario planning is identifying a specific set of uncertainties, different “realities” of what might happen in the future of your business.

What are the four levels of uncertainty?

The authors present four levels of uncertainty: 1) A predictable future, 2) Alternate futures 3) A range of futures 4) True ambiguity.

What can we do to prepare for uncertain events?

Confronting Uncertainty

  1. Apply appropriate analytic tools to identify strategic options. If you envision: Only a few future scenarios. …
  2. Select a strategic posture. Strategic postures clarify your strategic intent. …
  3. Build a portfolio of strategic moves. Use one or more of these moves depending on your strategic posture: